Five Idiotically Bold Predictions for Your 2010 – 2011 Miami Heat

It’s an unfathomably interesting time to be a Miami Heat fan, especially considering how comparatively dreadful they've been these past few seasons. It's been a downward spiral since closing out Dallas in 2006.

Until now, these were the team’s three best moments since that victory parade a few years back:

3) Wade’s double-overtime, three-point buzzer beater when the Heat hosted the Bulls back in March of 2009.

2) "Winning" the second pick in the 2008 NBA Draft, thanks to a league worst 15-67 record.

1) Using that pick to draft Michael Beasley, an undersized power forward who ended up averaging 14.9 points and 5.9 rebounds per game over the course of his two seasons with the Miami Heat.

All but one of them occurred in the off-season and even the lone exception was merely a regular season victory that was ultimately insignificant. It’s been a really long time since the Heat accomplished anything important on the court. (Wade’s spectacular strip, steal, and game-winning running three were phenomenal, though, watch it again and pay close attention to Brad Miller’s precious reaction shot.)

The franchise was hurting in a pretty bad way as recently as only a month ago; thankfully, Heat fans, God has a condo in South Beach.

Unless you’re living under a coconut on a deserted island, you already know that the roster has undergone some unprecedented changes. And if you are living under that coconut, I applaud your wireless network provider for getting you to my website.

You can skip straight down to my bold predictions but first you probably want to read a recap of the Heat's more noteworthy transactions these past few months.

KEY LOSSES:

Michael Beasley is traded to Timberwolves. Look, I liked Beasley. I liked him a lot. And I hated how certain South Florida reporters whose names I won't utter bastardized him at every opportunity.

I certainly hope he develops into an All-Star type talent. Even if he does, I'd still trade him in a heartbeat to secure the Heat's current lineup. Yeah, we could have kept him instead of Miller but clearly that wasn't what Wade and Co. wanted. Oh well, I wish you luck in Minnesota. Too bad new GM David Kahn is already rehashing old dirt.

Jermaine O'Neal (and his three-inch vertical leap) sign with Celtics. Take your money and get the hell out, JO. You were terrible for us when it counted. If memory serves me correctly, you shot about 8% from the field in the playoffs and you never even knocked out any Pistons fans. I hope you make Boston worse (and I gleefully suspect you will).

KEY RETENTIONS:

Dwyane Wade re-signs with Heat. This is still the best news of the off-season for Heat fans. Thankfully, we won’t have to endure another season of Tito’s for back-up.

Dwyane Wade re-signs with Heat. It sounded so nice I had to type it twice. We're all so grateful he came back.

Udonis Haslem re-signs with Heat. He is not as talented as Beasley and I never liked how the past few seasons played out. Haslem got too many undeserved minutes in crunch time and I don’t think the numbers show him to be nearly as clutch as most of his supporters would argue (both in the Playoffs and in fourth quarters). I don’t even like the way he rebounds.

Still, I’m glad the Heat the heat resigned him and I will support him. He is not a bad person; in fact, he had other (possibly more lucrative) offers on the table and he chose to stay as a sixth man right here in the city he loves.

He also adds much to the team. Unlike any of the new additions, Haslem has a ring on his finger. He may not wow the new stars with his moves, but he can show them how to stay poised under pressure. And he really will be a pretty good sixth man.

KEY ADDITIONS:

LeBron James added in a sign-and-trade with Cavaliers. Let’s start with the ugly.

“The Decision” was a mockery of sports in general and the NBA in particular; it forever tarnished the reputations of Michael Wilbon and Jim Gray as news reporters and flatly destroyed ESPN’s hopes of being seen as a source of information rather than a product of consumption; it was an affront to the intelligence of fans everywhere and a dagger in the backs of any hopefully naive Ohioans*. It should have never happened and hopefully the agents, publicists, and better angels of tomorrow’s mega-stars will learn from James’ mistake and never, ever repeat it.

Forget all that though. James signed with Miami, WOO-HOO! Who gives a shit how he got here or why he did it? The Heat just became the most exciting NBA team to watch in my lifetime! And they may even win a few championships in the process...

stolen from The Internet

Is one of these old ladies Delonte West's grandmother?

Chris Bosh added in a sign-and trade with Raptors. I’ll be honest, I haven’t watched Bosh play much outside of the Olympics and the occasional Sports Center highlight. I know he’s good, I don’t know if he’s great. If there is any chance he can become great, however, it'll happen on this team. I’m really curious to see how his game play evolves.

Mike Miller is signed from Wizards. He will shoot 400% from three point range this season. I mean it. He is going to be so wide-open from behind the arc that each he jacks up the ball it’s going to go in four times. I don’t even know what that means but it's true.

All these moves are a few weeks old and the rest of the Heat roster is filling out rather quickly. It'll be interesting watching the point guard situation unfold; will James start at the one or will Erik Spoelstra stick with the likes of Mario Chalmers and Carlos Arroyo? Other than that, all the Heat really need are some warm bodies. And plenty of them will play for the veteran minimum if it means one last shot at a title.

CONCLUSIONS:

The Heat are immensely talented on paper, no one will deny that. But they will be under an unheard of amount of pressure from both critics and scorned fans. I think those off-court distractions will dissolve away with the tip-off of the opening game. And that's why opening day just cannot come quickly enough for Heat players and fans.

Now here are this season's idiotically bold predictions:

(Don't say you weren’t warned.)

#1 - If the "core four" stays healthy, the Miami Heat will win this coming NBA Championship and they will do rather easily. Okay, maybe the first one isn't that much of a stretch.

#2 - If healthy, the Heat will also surpass the Chicago Bulls single season record of 72 wins. I'm thinking 75 wins and only seven (very publicized) losses.

#3 - If healthy, the Miami Heat will sweep the entire post-season. Every series, including the NBA Finals. Yes, I realize no team has ever done that. But this Heat team, if healthy and focused, is absolutely that much more talented than every other squad in the league.

#4 - The Heat will stay focused for every game during the regular season. At least for the first year. LeBron has too much riding on this “decision” to let up for a single game. He and Wade won’t allow his teammates to let up either.

The only big “if” here is the health of the key players.

If that prediction isn’t bold enough for you, here’s one more:

#5 - The Heat can withstand any single injury and still win the 2011 NBA Championship. If either James or Wade goes down with a season ending injury (God forbid), the Miami Heat will still win the NBA Championship.

Here’s the thing, a core of Wade, Bosh, and Miller, or James, Bosh, and Miller can still win it all.

The more favorable of those two really unfavorable scenarios is the one with a healthy Wade. He won it all before and he did it with less help. (Shaq circa 2006 and the rest of that unit was less talented than Bosh, Miller, etc.) The league is better than it was in 2006 but, well, so is Wade.

An injury to Wade would be the most devastating though still not necessarily crippling. I’m convinced that James might finally find that extra gear with Bosh and Miller to back him up. He would lead the Heat, as underdogs, through the playoffs and I suspect he would excel.

And what if someone other than James or Wade were to succumb to injury? No sweat. If Bosh, Miller, or one of the Titos goes down, Wade and James would still be the (fairly heavy) favorites with whatever table scraps they have left to work with.

I realize I’m putting out some really frightful ideas into the Universe; all this premature injury talk is like talking about a perfect game in the top of the sixth inning. I'm going to knock on some wood (for the next five hours straight).

Don’t forget to comment, especially if you’re one of those cry-babies from Cleveland (it’s a second-rate Hellmouth).

Until next time, Heat fans...

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NOTES:

*By the way, Cleveland, you fucking deserved "The Decision." Ohio State stole the 2003 Fiesa Bowl from the Miami Hurricanes. They cheated to win and now the whole region will deservedly suffer. Karma is a motherfucker.

Michael Beasley deserves a break

1) I live in a college town where weed is smoked more often than cigarettes, so marijuana isn’t a drug that particularly fazes me.

2) I had my share of minor legal troubles when I was 20, so I relate to a man who matures just a little bit too late.

3) I’m a Miami Heat fan, so I want Michael Beasley to enjoy a successful career.

Sure, there are plenty of reasons for me to sympathize with Michael Beasley.

But there are reasons why you should give him a break too.

Common decency. Yes, Beasley only went to college for one year and now he makes more money playing a game than you will ever make at your desk. Get over it.

His fame and his salary don’t make him a bad person and they don’t excuse you when you root for him to stumble.

Empathy. He’s a kid struggling to become a man, and his evolution occurs in the most public of forums. He’s under a tremendous amount of pressure. He’s asked not only to publicly excel at his sport, but to serve flawlessly as a role-model for America’s youth.

What were you asked to do at twenty?

Fairness and facticity, perhaps? Last season, Derrick Rose had great numbers for a rookie point guard. He absolutely deserved the Rookie of the Year distinction. And frankly, both the national sports media and the in-game telecasters treated Rose as the anointed one. He was a phenomenal player destined for greatness and, oh yeah, he-cheated-on-his-SATs-and-publicly-endorses-gangs.

Rose is a talented ball player (as is O.J. Mayo, for that matter)and I honestly don’t know to what extent these allegations should be considered news, but there is an obvious double standard when it comes to both reporting and characterizing these young athletes.

Beasley is supposedly renowned for a “bad attitude” though no one explains why or even bothers to offer up a confirming source. He’s ascribed these vague but exceedingly negative attitudinal qualities for no apparent reason.

Yes, he used marijuana last year at the rookie symposium. His actions were unquestionably wrong. He was breaking the law, certainly not helping his team, and setting a bad example. His reputation (not to mention his conditioning) were likely to suffer. It was a mistake for which he still pays.

Early in the season, Coach Erik Spoelstra called Beasley out for a lack of defensive intensity and subsequently benched him behind a less talented player. He assured Beasley his minutes would return when his defensive game went up a notch.

Beasley lived up to his end of the bargain, but was not given extra minutes until the end of the regular season when Udonis Haslem missed games due to injury. Spoelstra was still reluctant to start Beasley in Haslem’s absence, though, when he did, Beasley’s numbers were exceptional.

Nevertheless, Beasley returned to the bench for the start of the playoffs and the Heat was knocked out in the first round. Did Beasley once complain in interviews or on Twitter? No. He simply did what was asked. In fact, since his one mistake at the rookie symposium, Beasley has seemingly done everything right.

On Monday, Beasley checked himself into a rehabilitation center in Houston. The details are still unfolding, but that hasn’t prevented rampant media speculation and armchair psychiatry.

Beasley is a good kid and I don’t see how anyone can reasonably dispute that.

Perhaps, until the facts are sorted, we can all refrain from indicting him.

Update: It now seems this rehab trip was long in the works. See what happens when we speculate?

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Weekly SoFla Sports Update (08/14/09)

I have neither the worth ethic nor the inclination for daily sports related posts, especially considering the majority of my teams are presently in their off-seasons.

Nevertheless, as the Marlins surge into both the Division and Wild Card races and as the Dolphins prepare for their first preseason game, there is much to be said. Even the Heat, who have been quiet for months, are finally making moves (well, one move at least).

The natural compromise is a weekly sports roundup.

Florida Marlins
Thanks to their "incredible" offensive consistency (10 consecutive games with 10 or more hits), the Marlins find themselves only three games behind the Colorado Rockies in the National League Wild Card race.

As fate would have it, those red-hot Rockies begin a three game series at Land Shark Stadium tonight. Probable starters are Jason Hammel (7-6) and Josh Johnson (11-2). Johnson hasn’t lost in over a month.

Yeah, I’d say these next few games are important.

Other Marlins news:
Anibel Sanchez, on the DL since June 4th, looked good in his first AA rehab start.
And we have an update on the construction of Marlins Stadium: One day down, 449 more to go.

Marlins links:
FishStripes
Marlins @ Miami Herald
Marlins @ Sun-Sentinel


Miami Dolphins
Two weeks of training camp are in the books and the Dolphins are 72 hours from their preseason opener against the Jaguars.

What have we learned thus far?

1) Omar Kelly’s up-to-date depth chart shows us nothing too outlandish.

You’ll notice the Dolphins’ only rookie starter, as of now, is second rounder Sean Smith (61st overall). This is no slight against first round pick Vontae Davis (25th overall), who still sits behind Will Allen at LCB on the charts. Allen is perhaps the most talented veteran member of the Dolphins’ secondary; he had the most interceptions and the most passes deflected last season behind the recently departed Andre’ Goodman. Smith is assigned to a very weak right-side, with an unproven (at least as a Dolphin) Eric Green and an uneven (at best) Jason Allen. All that considered, I wouldn’t be surprised if Davis is starting ahead of Allen (and opposite of Smith) by week four of the regular season.

Mike Stocker, Sun-Sentinel / May 1, 2009

Head Coach Tony Sparano sifts through his pockets for matches, hoping to light rookie CB Sean Smith's farts.

In only a few months (and mostly by way of the draft), their secondary unit has become exponentially more talented and so much faster. On paper, it looks great. And so far in training camp, they have outshined the quarterbacks and wide-receiver corps. Monday, however, is their first real test. It’ll be interesting to see how the three rooks (Davis, Smith, and Chris Clemons) fare against an unfamiliar offense.

2) Jason Taylor isn’t just back, he’s back. So much so that Ethan J. Skolnick is predicting a 10 to 12 sacks from him this season. How wonderful that would be, after trading him for a second round pick and resigning him for free a year later.

3) Pat White didn’t throw well in the first week of camp, but that’s no reason to worry. I’d be truly surprised if he takes five snaps from a conventional formation all season but he can still be an effective weapon. It might be bad form using a second round pick on a third string quarterback, but he isn’t just any third stringer. When the Dolphins go to the Wildcat (or the WildPat, as some now like to call it), White will make plays and he will make defensive coordinators plan for his presence.

And he looked better this week. "Pat's been getting better and better," says Tony Sparano. Is he ever going to be the starter? Probably not, but Chad Pennington won’t play forever and Chad Henne, with as much potential as he’s shown, is as unproven as anyone.

4) The Dolphins look to be improving.

Yeah, it is only training camp, even the Lions fans are chipper—but I think the Dolphins are legitimately better than they were last year. Certainly, with a healthy Tom Brady and with the additions of Terrell Owens and Matt Sanchez, the AFC East becomes only more competitive, but I think the Dolphins have a very good shot and reclaiming the division title.

I’ll wait a few weeks to make any regular season predictions, but if you’re a Dolphins fan, you have to be enthusiastically optimistic right now.

Dolphins links:
Ethan J. Skolnick @ Sun-Sentinel
Armando Salguero @ Miami Herald
The Phinsider

Miami Heat
Dwyane Wade has yet to resign, and no one expects him to any time soon, but that’s no cause for panic. It would be stupid for him to sign this quickly, but I’d bet a large chunk of change that he continues to play for the Miami Heat through the 2010-2011 season.

This Heat off-season has been historically slow, but that’s a deliberate movie by Pat Riley in hopes of landing an additional marquee free agent next summer.

Today, however, there were finally signs of life. Quentin Richardson, who has been dealt to everyone but the Washington Generals this summer, was traded from the Minnesota Timberwolves to the Heat in exchange for Mark Blount’s expiring corpse contract.

Skolnick reports the Heat are the only team so far this summer to introduce Q-Rich to the media, so there’s a pretty good chance he’s here for awhile.

I like this move. It gives the Heat a semi-legitimate scoring threat at the perimeter when Wade is on the bench and Michael Beasley is posting-up. Even if it doesn’t work out, the Heat lost only their fourth string center and their cap space is still entirely intact for next year.

Also, Beasley is cool; follow him on Twitter.